1. The polls are narrowing: Five weeks ago, Hillary Clinton was up by 8 points. Now she’s up by 1.8 points, according to... the RealClearPolitics average of the national polls. That same average of national polls shows Trump has now pulled ahead in Florida, Ohio, Iowa, and Arizona—four crucial battleground states.
2. Clinton's campaign spending doesn’t seem to be working: During this period, Clinton has been outspending Trump by a margin of 10-to-1 on TV ads.
3. Trump supporters are more enthusiastic: A new Washington Post-ABC News poll shows that 93% of Trump supporters say they are absolutely certain to vote. But only about 80% of Hillary Clinton's supporters are that committed to turning out.
4. There are lots of them: Trump got the most primary votes of any Republican presidential candidate in history. Meanwhile, despite the engaging and substantive contest between Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton, turnout for Democrats was down in the primary compared to 2008.
5. Authoritarian populism is breaking out all over the world: Yesterday, polling guru Nate Silver said the race has become “highly competitive,” and noted the race has “echoes of Brexit,” in which a right-wing populist surge forced Britain out of the European Union.
Maybe I'm being unduly alarmist, but, frankly, I don't think the Democratic Party is being alarmist enough. Trump could win.
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