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Name:	GoneFishin -	Reply
Subject:	The Fair and Balanced Poll
Date:	8/9/2012 6:23:52 PM

Here is the result of a FOX poll released today.. Mitt Romney has had a tough couple of weeks on the campaign trail -- and it shows in the latest Fox News poll. After a barrage of campaign ads, negative news coverage of his overseas trip and ongoing talk about his tax returns, Romney’s favorable rating and standing in the trial ballot have declined. As a result, President Obama has opened his biggest lead since Romney became the presumptive Republican nominee. The president would take 49 percent of the vote compared to Romney's 40 percent in a head-to-head matchup if the election were held today, the poll found. Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/08/09/fox-news-poll-obama-lead-grows-as-romney-support-slips/#ixzz235eVkijS

Name:	water_watcher -	Reply
Subject:	this is the ONLY one that matters
Date:	8/9/2012 6:53:42 PM

since this has been the most accurate in all recent elections ... let me know what this changes. BTW, Romneys approval rating has a long way to fall before it looks like Oblamers chart. It is obvious you are getting nervous ... and you should. The turd is going to lose. I am still happy to take a bet with you if you are that confident ... although, you staill can not even think of one thing Oblamer has done that the middle class has benefited from.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

Name:	MartiniMan -	Reply
Subject:	But sadly flawed
Date:	8/9/2012 7:42:50 PM

GF, I know this makes you feel better but here are some inconvenient facts about the poll. 1) It was of registered voters and not likely voters. This sample always overstates Dem support. 2) And much more damning is the oversampling of Dems. The percentage of Dems is 9% higher than Republicans which if 2010 and voter enthusiasm is any indication this is way oversampled. 3) If you look at the internals almost 15% of independents say they could switch from Obama with a much smaller percentage saying the same of Romney.

I think if you were honest you would conclude that right now Obama has a slight lead over Romney on the national vote and probably a little better off with the swing states. Considering he is the incumbant and Romeny has not spent anywhere near what Obama has in swing states I would take little comfort in the numbers. As I often state, Obama has a better than even chance of winning and Romney needs to be on his A game to make a run at the Messiah.

Name:	GoneFishin -	Reply
Subject:	But sadly flawed
Date:	8/9/2012 7:58:34 PM

Hey MM I guess you just can't trust FOX. Something else where you and I are agree.

Name:	MartiniMan -	Reply
Subject:	Don't overextend here
Date:	8/10/2012 8:51:10 AM

GF, word to the wise, this isn't about trust. I have no doubt about the validity of the results and absolutely trust that the results presented in this poll are exactly what they got from the poll. And when you look at all the various media choices I trust Fox more than most but not completely....not even close. But apparently you and I have different goals for a poll as I am sure mine also differ from the media. Your goal with polls is to make yourself feel better about the Messiah's chances. That is why you flit about and only mention those polls that give you the results you like. The media's goal with polls is to make news. They commission a poll and then they can write endless stories about it. Fills a slow news day. My goal with polls is to try and understand what might happen on the first Tuesday in November because that is the only one that matters. That is why any poll that uses anything other than self-identified likely voters is not reliable. That is why any poll that oversamples Democrats or Republicans or Independents vis-a-vis what happens in November is flawed. And that is why I trust Rasmussen more than any of the others and their record of matching actual election results in unparalleled.

Name:	MAJ USA RET -	Reply
Subject:	Don't overextend here - 'splained
Date:	8/10/2012 9:33:40 AM

A poll is a statistical sampling of a representative number of people in order to accurately describe the current average condition. SO, why can you not rely on polls?

a) They are not so random – the very methodology for selecting phone numbers immediately precludes randomness (i.e. home phones versus cell phones). The polling industry is also compromised by the slick, call center, fake pollsters who sell free cruises and free dinners. People who DO NOT HANG UP are not the brightest political thinkers. The rest of us folks hang up and go back to supper with the family. Does this not fly in the face of randomness?

b) They fail to be precise - (What good is +/- 4%?) The pollsters simply do not have enough time to contact enough people to “bring their shot group in tight”. They have to “go to press” so quickly that they just can’t do a truly representative sample. Polling is all about media.

Rasmussen could do this right if they only reported once a month. RealClearPolitics further muddies the polls by adding noise and then averaging the results (as a geophysicist, I’d be fired for doing that).

c) They don’t sample enough voters (or the respondents are not truthful) See b) above.

d) They don’t ask a valid question – If the question is couched in innuendo, and the respondent's preferred response is not available in the choices… it isn’t a valid question.

e) The responses don’t measure the condition being surveyed. – If folks are asked whether they like big furry brown dogs, you cannot conclude that they do not like Shetland sheepdogs. Lies are not winnowed from truths. If my dog could talk, I’d let her answer the pollster’s questions.

BOTTOM LINe: Martini is RIGHT! The polls benefit the media... not you and me. Polls are of no use to us… none. Unless of course, they make you feel good about something.

Name:	GoneFishin -	Reply
Subject:	MM.....Don't overextend here
Date:	8/10/2012 9:37:09 AM (updated 8/10/2012 9:39:45 AM)

Obviously, you don't like the results.

Name:	MartiniMan -	Reply
Subject:	I don't care about the results
Date:	8/10/2012 9:50:13 AM

They are irrelevant as they are much less likely to tell me what I really want to know. Believe me, if Rasmussen started reporting Obama in the lead I would not like those results.....but I would tend to believe them way more than these other flawed polls, but only as an indicator of what might happen in November when it really matters. If it makes you feel better to cherry pick polls that tell you what you want to hear and post them here then by all means go for it. That is the definition of a liberal......they do things that make them feel better about themselves regardless of the actual meaning or consequences. But this particular poll is not worthy of liking or disliking because the results are not representative of what would happen were the election held today and obviously even less so when it is actually held.

Name:	GoneFishin -	Reply
Subject:	I don't care about the results YEA RIGHT
Date:	8/10/2012 12:10:09 PM

Why no comment about the post on 8/9?? "Has Romney with a 4% lead over Oblamer with 4% undecided." No source but I bet you liked the result.

Name:	MartiniMan -	Reply
Subject:	How could I comment?
Date:	8/10/2012 1:38:29 PM

There is no reference to which poll it was so there was nothing for me to comment on. If you have more details about which poll it was I will be glad to comment. But I can tell you that if it is flawed like the one above I will like it even more than you can imagine. If its of registered voters and oversampled Dems then I will like it a lot even though it is irrelevant. And if it is of likely voters and oversamples Republicans I will discount its validity. But I don't know which poll it was on which day so I can't comment.

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