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| Name: |
water_watcher
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| Subject: |
Hey Archie ..
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Date:
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11/26/2012 6:55:56 PM
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After Obama won in 2008 you provided a forecast and so did I ... as it turns out I was much closer on the overall economy.
Care to make any predictions for the next 4 years? I say in 4 years unemployment will still be over 7%, gas prices will be between $5-$6 a gallon, the national debt will be around $20 trillion ... and interest rates will be close to 8%
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| Name: |
MartiniMan
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| Subject: |
Don't hold your breath
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Date:
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11/26/2012 7:24:34 PM
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If Archie had to admit every time he was wrong it would take up all his time......
I would say I shared your pessimism at the time and am sad that you were close to being right on. The only difference is interest rates which the Fed has kept artificially low to the point of our risking something much worse than inflation...namely deflation. You would think we could look at Japan's lost decade as a warning sign but alas, we seem not to be that smart.
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| Name: |
architect
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| Subject: |
Predictions!!
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Date:
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11/26/2012 9:48:29 PM (updated 11/26/2012 9:53:15 PM)
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Well, since the number of employed has gone up about 4.5 million in the last 30 months I expect to add another 8 to 10 million in the next 49 months (150,000 to 200,000 / mo) with the rate of unemployment down to 5% to 6%. At the end of Hillary's first term it will be down to 4% or less.
With the economy making a good upward jump interest will certainly go up but no where near prime at 8%. Mortgage rates will go up to 4.5% to 5%. Still lower than in the Eisenhower years.
Gasoline will be up but not over $4.50 to $5.00 depending on world demand. Our own oil output will continue to go up with North American production making us "self sufficient" by 2020 but as long as you believe in the market economy don't expect that to have an impact on domestic prices. It is a global market and if you expect Exxon to be "patriotic" and sell to Americans at $60/b when the rest of the world is willing to pay $110/b then you are even crazier than I thought.
Inflation will be flat for 2013 and 2% to 3% for the next 3 years.
As for the national debt...well we will know after we see what happens over the next 3 to 4 months. If the President and both parties will tell their no tax increase / no entitlement change wingnuts to take a hike then we might be able to make some progress.
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| Name: |
water_watcher
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| Subject: |
and ...
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Date:
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11/27/2012 6:10:26 AM
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If you are wrong ... will you finally admit Obama's and the liberal policies do not work. I hope your numbers are right and mine are wrong ... but I don't think so ... with the layoffs we are seeing with Obamacare ... combined with the higher taxes on producers and job creators ... don't see the growth you are.
I will also point out that 150,000 - 200,000 jobs a month does not move the needle as much as you predict. There are 150,000 new people a month entering the workforce. So you need that many just to stay at 8%.
You can say what you want about the last 30 months ... but the facts are that fewer people are working and the total number of available jobs are less today than when Obama took office. The recovery was strongest in Obama's first year, before any of his policies were put in place ... it weakened each year after. So I would say that Obama can not take credit for any job creation from him policies ... in fact we would have had a stronger recovery had he done nothing.
Just tell me what it will take to have Obama take responsibity and you stop making excuses for the failed policies.
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| Name: |
architect
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and ...SOME FACTS !!
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Date:
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11/27/2012 8:43:54 AM (updated 11/27/2012 8:52:28 AM)
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1/ There are MORE people employed today than when Obama took office. Barely but in fact more.
2/ There are more jobs available today than in Jan 2009. Good Lord man...we were shedding
3/4 million jobs a month when Bush left. The job losses began to decline on Obama's FIRST
full month as president!
3/ The strongest growth occurred in Obama's 2d year not the 1st. That happens to be the year his
stimulus bill fully kicked in. A coincidence...I don't think so.
4/ Actually it varies month to month but on average a bit more than 170,000 NEW job seekers
enter the market every month, but 30,000+ leave it...they are called "retirees" and with
the biggest chunk of the baby boomers reaching their mid 60's over the next
few years, that number will grow.
5/ If my predictions do not come to pass I will not admit Obama's policies failed because his
policies (as would be the case with Romney's had he won) only nibble at the periphery of our
economy. The Global market and fiscal/growth/tax/monetary policies as a whole drive
today's economic ups and downs, not the individual efforts of politicians. What happens in
The European Community, Japan, China and the other BRICKS countries will have more to say about
what your investments look like in 2017 Than Pres Obama.
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| Name: |
water_watcher
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| Subject: |
more excuses ...
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Date:
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11/27/2012 9:05:44 AM
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so sad ... you and your liberal party are never willing to stand up and take responsibility, yet have no problem blaming Bush and the GOP for everything that does not work. You are pathetic.
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| Name: |
water_watcher
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| Subject: |
and ...SOME FACTS !!
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Date:
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11/27/2012 9:34:32 AM
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and on the stimulus ... that is such BS ... but even if we did get a small kick from it ... it was short lived. Government spending is not a long term fix to an economy ... you need job growth and consumer spending ... but you won't have that when you take more money out of consumers pockets, and burden businesses with higher taxes, regulations and expenses like Obamacare.
When you have less money, do you spend, more, less or the same? Use logic ... bigger government is bad for the economy. When businesses have to deal with regulation and more taxes and expenses, they either raise prices, which is another burden on consumers or they cut expenses in other ways ... which we are seeing happening with layoffs and reduced hours due to obamacare.
Archie, use some common sense. If it is not how I described it ... how does more government spending help?
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| Name: |
architect
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| Subject: |
WW common sense is not part of your bag of tricks!
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Date:
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11/27/2012 9:52:19 AM (updated 11/27/2012 9:54:13 AM)
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It has been said many times but it is always profound..."You are entitled to your own opinions but not your own facts!"
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| Name: |
MartiniMan
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| Subject: |
Some analysis of your predictions
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Date:
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11/27/2012 1:12:04 PM
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Archie, I will start out by saying that I hope some of your predictions come true although I am skeptical. Some I hope do not for obvious reasons.
Well, since the number of employed has gone up about 4.5 million in the last 30 months I expect to add another 8 to 10 million in the next 49 months (150,000 to 200,000 / mo) with the rate of unemployment down to 5% to 6%. At the end of Hillary's first term it will be down to 4% or less.
MM Comment: Uh Archie, population growth adds about 175,000 to 225,000 new workers each month so under your prediction we would actually see unemployment go up. But your 4.5M number is a pure fabrication. The number of people that have left the workforce and are not even being counted in the U2 numbers far exceeds that. Real unemployment is closer to 11% and we have lost more jobs and workers in the last four years, not gained. Otherwise you being factually wrong, I hope your prediction of unemployment being down to 5%-6% actually happens by some means other than more people giving up ever finding a job. If you for some reason need references for my numbers please do a google search as it is inarguable. I suggest you start at the DLS website. Its all there for those that want to do more than read HuffnPuff Post. As far as Hillary goes she will be tough to beat given the electorate we have right now.
With the economy making a good upward jump interest will certainly go up but no where near prime at 8%. Mortgage rates will go up to 4.5% to 5%. Still lower than in the Eisenhower years.
MM Comment: While I am skeptical about the economy recovering if TOTUS continues to follow the FDR model, it would be nice. I actually think rates will be lower because of the continued weak economy and I expect another recession if tax rates go up and the fedl govt removes trillions of dollars from the economy and punishes businesses for hiring and investing.
Gasoline will be up but not over $4.50 to $5.00 depending on world demand. Our own oil output will continue to go up with North American production making us "self sufficient" by 2020 but as long as you believe in the market economy don't expect that to have an impact on domestic prices. It is a global market and if you expect Exxon to be "patriotic" and sell to Americans at $60/b when the rest of the world is willing to pay $110/b then you are even crazier than I thought.
MM Comment: I actually think oil prices could go down if the administration pursues a stronger dollar. The key to oil prices is the value of the dollar and demand. For the sake of those in the middle and lower classes lets hope gasoline returns to below $2 per gallon.
Inflation will be flat for 2013 and 2% to 3% for the next 3 years.
MM Comment: I sure hope so but a lot will depend on whether the Fed pursues more quantitative easing (ie, printing money) and the state of the economy. I actually think we should be more worried about deflation than inflation ala Japan and their lost decade.
As for the national debt...well we will know after we see what happens over the next 3 to 4 months. If the President and both parties will tell their no tax increase / no entitlement change wingnuts to take a hike then we might be able to make some progress.
MM Comment: We have a spending problem, not a revenue problem. But besides that, the GOP is the only party that has proposed meaningful entitlement reform which is the only way to correct that spending problem. I suspect that if TOTUS and Harry Reid actually propose real spending cuts (something I strongly doubt) they will find enough Republicans to sign on. Lets hope they are serious for once and actually propose something real rather than demonizing to gather up more votes. My bet is they will go for the latter and you will buy it hook, line and sinker.
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