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CRD
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Subject: |
The science is beginning to trickle in
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Date:
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3/17/2021 5:53:29 PM
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https://doi.org/10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2021.1552
Contrary to what a member of this forum has refused to believe, this study suggests that the actual numbers of SARS-CoV-2 infections is double that of the cases reported to the CDC due to a more accurate picture of asymptomatic individuals with levels of antibodies. On one hand the data does suggest, as stated, a more "widespread pandemic". On the other hand, the IFR, Infection Fatalilty Rate, which many agree provides a number which more fully describes the severity of a disease, ( IFR = Number of deaths from a disease/number of infected individuals) is now significantly lower because the denominator has essentially been raised by 16 million as of September 2020.
Although even one death from COVID is indeed tragic, the 2-3% fatality rate that this member was on record as saying exists, is not quite accurate.
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architect
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Subject: |
Happy to see you are now agreeing that the
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Date:
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3/17/2021 8:43:07 PM (updated 3/17/2021 8:44:50 PM)
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Covid cases were higher, not lower than originally reported...comment MM?
Now, iyou say a forum member has said Covid fatalities were 2% to 3% of the positive cases. I have no idea who you refer to, but if it is me, please point out anyplace that I claimed a defined death rate of 2% much less 3%. If you say I have so claimed, you are ''not quite accurate.''
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Name: |
CRD
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Subject: |
Do you remember this?
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Date:
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3/17/2021 9:25:47 PM (updated 3/17/2021 9:26:58 PM)
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From an 11/20 2020 post:
To begin, you have a lot of chutzpah to condemn me for ignoring science when you know as well as I do that almost all scientist do not agree with you about this Virus! You may not like that fact but it is the fact. I guess it is possible that all them are wrong and you and MM are right but it is also possible the the sun will explode tomorrow.
Now, 13,771,000 infected / 272,660 dead = 50.506....1 in 50 die! 2 in 100 die! 2.0% die! NOT 0.2%!
Bottom line One out of every 50 positive case has died. Now, I may not be a hot shot ''scientist'' like you and able to spout $100 words that mean nothing to 99% of humanity, but I can apparently do elementary school arithmatic better than you and the above equation comes out as ''2% of the people who get Covid DIE''...period, full stop!
My bark is still substantially in place!
BTW: You are one sorry azz doctor as well as human being considering your rather dismissive view of the value of old people compared to the younger set. Most cultures value age.
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Lifer
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Subject: |
The Doc brought receipts
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Date:
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3/18/2021 5:22:53 AM
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Now tell us again how you NEVER sai it. This ain't CNN, liberal idiots get challenged here.
I wonder how he will spin this one....lol.
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MartiniMan
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Subject: |
The science was already there
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Date:
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3/18/2021 8:09:27 AM
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Over the last year I've read at least half a dozen studies that opined this and that the fatality rate was about the same as the flu but far worse for the elderly and obese and far lower for everyone else. I had mild cold symptoms in January 2019 that I have long suspected was the Wuhan virus as I've not been infected since then. But I refuse to get tested. If I get another cold I'll just work from home for 10 days. This has been panic porn by the media from the beginning to harm Trump and given the way they do the PCR test, at least until January 6th, a large percentage of the oridinary flu and cold cases were called the virus which is why both numbers magically went down by 90% while the virus cases soared.
Cue the scientific illiterates:
Me: How come ordinary flu and cold cases were down 90% over the last year?
Illiterate: It's because of the shutdowns, social distancing and masks!
Me: Then why did we have a spike in ChiCom virus cases at the same time?
Illiterate: It's because people weren't obeying the shutdowns, social distancing and mask wearing!
Me: That makes absolutely no sense.
Illiterate: Science denier! Believe the government and the experts!
Me: You mean the ones that have been consistently wrong?
Illiterate: @#*&!*#&@%# you!
That is the sorry state of education these days.......and I am still seeing morons walking or driving by themselves wearing masks. Every single day. They are literally that obtuse.
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architect
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Subject: |
WEAK CRD, WEAK
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Date:
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3/18/2021 8:50:37 AM
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My correction of your own post claiming that the death rate was just 0.2% by pointing out correctly that AT THAT POINT IN TIME 2% of the infected had died, is not an unsolicited declaration that the the deathrate was 2% (or 3% as was part of what you just stated) . Why do you not point out the other posts in that same string where I noted that as time went on the rate of fatalities, while still high, was less than in the early days. Put your big boy pants on and tell the WHOLE story CRD.
Now since we all know you are basically honest with only an occasional politically biased slip into ''exaggeration'', find some of your posts where you down played the same disease you are now pointing out was even more widespread than the scientific and medical community originally suggested.
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architect
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Subject: |
OK, one of you scientific geniuses explain why
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Date:
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3/18/2021 8:56:11 AM (updated 3/18/2021 8:59:23 AM)
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15% (450,000) more American died from all causes in 2020 than in 2019? Believe me, it ain't from the ''violent'' BLM marches.
PS: I know MM will probably not see this because he refuses to listen to any person or opinion he finds unworthy of his time, but perhaps one of his admirers will ask him to answer the question.
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Name: |
CRD
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Subject: |
Weak?
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Date:
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3/18/2021 10:45:46 AM
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You asked for and I delivered not 1, not 2, not 3, but 4 instances in one post where you claimed the mortality rate approximated 2%. I could have referenced 82 seroprevalence studies that would have justified my number, (you would not have read them anyway) and this last study further validates the previous studies referencing a far less mortality rate than you described. Point being, yes, I have been on record of stating that this virus was highly contagious and serious, however, simply because we are getting an idea of just how many asymptomatic cases there are out there and in what age groups and demographics, the widespread nature of the disease still does not qualify it as a crisis necessitating the Fauci led lockdowns and causing our children to bear the brunt of the contagion even though they were the least affected.
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phil
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Subject: |
OK, one of you scientific geniuses explain why
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Date:
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3/18/2021 11:01:37 AM (updated 3/18/2021 11:03:40 AM)
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Maybe you can help me with this data that shows that the death rate growth has been growing in the same 1.1-1.2 percent since around 2014?
And that 2019 and 2020 were roughly equal in terms of the death rate, and was actually down from the growth rate of higher growth rate in 2014-2016.
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architect
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Subject: |
CRD, 6 questions 1/ What is 2% of 13,771,000
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Date:
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3/18/2021 8:40:16 PM (updated 3/18/2021 9:16:46 PM)
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2/ Was my post you reference made in response to another post where death rate claims were made?
3/ Who posted the comment that I referred to in my response which you quoted?
4/ Did the post I replied to claim that the death rate from Covid was 0.2%?
5/ Was the claim of a 0.2% death rate a correct statement at the time it was made?
6/ Have you are have you not repeatedly stated in posts that the Covid pandemic was NOT a crisis?* Do you consider a crisis now?
I look forward to your response. Yeah sure, when pigs fly LOL!
* For one example see 10/21/2020, 5:50:36 pm. There are others!
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Name: |
CRD
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Subject: |
The hits keep on coming.....
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Date:
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3/19/2021 11:37:09 AM (updated 3/19/2021 11:38:32 AM)
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Two more instances of your 2% mortality quotes:
"hat there was no lockdown called for with H1N1 was because it was a death sentence for 0.0002% of the peole who got it vs 2% for COVID 19. Are you even capable of recognizing there a difference...a BIG difference. If you can't see it may God protect anybody who ever reclines on your examination table.
If you criticize Biden and Obama for not calling for stricter measures for a disease that killed 1 of every 50,000 effected how does it make sense that you have not done the same for Trump in the case of a disease that is 1000 times more deadly killing 1 out of every 50 infected? Can you see even a teeny tiny bit of nonsensical hypocrisy there CRD? Is your politically biased and blinded brain able to grasp how stupid you sound.
Finally, my post was 100% factual as you well know.
No factual basis for your commentary Archie. We all know that.
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Name: |
CRD
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Subject: |
WEAK CRD, WEAK
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Date:
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3/19/2021 12:55:43 PM (updated 3/19/2021 12:56:29 PM)
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You were correcting nothing Archie. Your's was the first mention of mortality rates in that thread. You first raised the number and I offered stats to correct you. Please get your facts correct before trying to defend yourself.
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architect
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Subject: |
The diversions just keep on coming
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Date:
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3/19/2021 1:17:49 PM (updated 3/19/2021 1:21:41 PM)
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“No factual basis for your commentary Archie”...Math is a fact CRD
As I said a couple of comments above, at the time of the referenced post the fatality rate WAS 2% of the cases reported...do you deny that? Are you so blinded by politics that you cannot bring yourself to confirm What is true? Now, if you are honest, go dig up those old posts where I also suggest that the rate will drop as we become more knowledgeable as to what the virus is an how to fight it. Oh, while you are at it find a post where I ever said that the deaths were 3% of cases as you indicated in your opening comment “somebody” had claimed. Was it me...when and where? Somebody else...who, when and where? What about COVID vs H1N1, the dreaded virus that you did consider a “crisis” because Joe Biden bungled it? How do the death rates of these two viruses compare? Since MM doesn’t seem interested, how do you explain 15% more deaths in the US in 2020 than 2019? Now you have some other questions to ignore just as you did the initial 6.
I am happy that the death rate is less than originally thought. I am sad that it is so because many more people have been infected than originally thought. Glad they didn’t die but sorry they were sick. Humm, I’m not sure, but l believe back about this time last year you were agreeing with MM that the infection rate was much lower than was being claimed. I guess l should congratulate you for now finally accepting the fact that in truth it was higher, not lower.
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Name: |
CRD
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Subject: |
You continue to be wrong
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Date:
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3/19/2021 2:24:12 PM
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Not getting into this Archie. You were wrong about your 2% quote then as the seroprevalence studies were already out there. You just chose not to read them. I offered you the study explaining IFR and CFR and your comment to me was a snide one. And you continue to spin and try to squirm out of your conundrum now. You asked for evidence of your quote, I provided you more than enough of said evidence. If you want to play fast and loose with your facts, accept the criticism that comes with it.
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Name: |
architect
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Subject: |
CRD, what percent of 13,771,000 is 273,000?
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Date:
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3/19/2021 11:56:19 PM (updated 3/19/2021 11:57:57 PM)
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What is your answer dammit?
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Name: |
CRD
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Subject: |
CRD, what percent of 13,771,000 is 273,000?
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Date:
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3/20/2021 8:18:43 AM
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We all have math skills Archie. All you are justifying is a simple fraction turned into a percentage. I will call this from now on Archie's Ratio. It is important to you to blather about, but has no basis in epidemiological accuracy, even in November when you stated 6 times that this number was the holy grail.
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Name: |
architect
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Subject: |
CRD, Your posts do not indicate much math skill
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Date:
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3/20/2021 9:07:21 AM (updated 3/20/2021 9:32:15 AM)
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although it is very impressive that you realize there is a mathematic relationship between fractions, ratios and percentages. ''Archie's ratio''...I like it, but the ''A-R'' has never been stated as a definitive 1:50.
I have never declared that the death rate from Covid was a fixed 2% but that it was 2% of the cases on the date your post referenced. Since you have consistantly refused to answer any of the reasonable questions posed, I will give you one more fact of math...According to the daily tally from Johns-Hopkins there are currently currently a total of 30.17 million Americans who have tested positive for Covid and 549,000 who have died after contracting the virus. if my ''public'' elementary school math is correct that is a 1.896884% (A R=approx 1:53) fatality rate. Now if your ''private'' school calculus comes up with a different answer then you might want to ask for a refund. Of course l have to admit bottom line is you are right...the fatality rate is not 2%...but it remains, even today, damn close.
I don't even know exactly what ''epdemiology'' is , and suspect most of us common folks don't, but I do know over half a million people are dead from a disease you still apparently do not consider a health crisis and l know that for some reason 15% more Americans died in 2020 than in 2019. I know these ''facts'' make me mad as he!! because it might not have been this way if fewer people like you had their heads in the political sand!
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Name: |
architect
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Subject: |
CRD you're right! its not 2%
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Date:
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3/20/2021 8:16:36 PM (updated 3/20/2021 8:20:12 PM)
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Per Johns-Hopkins it'scurrently 2.61%
Total positive tests so far in March (3/1 - 3/19) = 1,083,000
Total deaths from Covid so far in March (3/1 - 3/19) = 28,273
Fatality rate so far in March (3/1 - 3/19) = 2.61%
Yeah yeah, I know that there is no direct relationship between the positives and the deaths. I didn't just fall off the turnip truck and realize that 2.61% of the people who test positive in the morning will not be dead before midnight but I also know that every one of those dead people had tested positive at some point before their demise and that on average at some point 2.61% of the positive test individuals have died...I believe that is an approximate AR of 1:38.
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Name: |
CRD
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Subject: |
CRD you're right! its not 2%
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Date:
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3/20/2021 11:29:46 PM
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so where are the asymptomatic, untested as of yet individuals? You have to search the seroprevalence numbers to get this and use it to calculate the IFR. How much clearer do I have to make it? You have quoted 2% over 6 times now. Your number is meaningless. Stop embarassing yourself.
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architect
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Subject: |
Stop making an azz of yourself showing off
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Date:
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3/21/2021 4:51:41 PM (updated 3/21/2021 4:54:22 PM)
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by spouting words that 99% of the people don't understand and start doing the math that most 5th graders do!
It doesn't matter how much you deflect and confuse, the verifiable and factual numbers show that as of this moment more than 2% of the positive cases of Covid eventually result in the patient dying. Stop embarrassing yourself by continuing to deny the obvious...it is unbecoming of a ''doctor'', a supposed man of science.
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Name: |
Lifer
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Subject: |
Wow! I'm a 1 percenter
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Date:
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3/21/2021 6:42:06 PM
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Who knew? I say that because dumb@ss told the Doc to stop using words 99% don't understand. I've understood every word he's ever written here, so I'm a 1 percenter. I bet 99% of you guys are too...lol.
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architect
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Subject: |
I caught your charts before logging in Phil
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Date:
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3/21/2021 6:59:31 PM (updated 3/21/2021 7:08:23 PM)
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Thanks for a response. Didn't expect to hear from MM of course so great that you spoke up.
Interesting info. Do you know where these projections originate? They are from the UN...are you sure you want to hang your hat on anything provided by such a questionable and, according to D. J. Trump, anti-American organization? Also have to wonder whether you saw the note on the chart that the rates for 2020 forward are projections rather than historical and that they are made based on previous year's death rates without taking into account COVID 19 or any changes that might result by COVID 19 being considered. Just wanted to help clarify your very interesting info.
Now, do you want to comment on the now historical reality that the actual number of deaths for all causes in the US for 2020 was up 15% over 2019. I assume you agree with CRD and MM it couldn't be from the over hyped, over counted ''China'' virus, so tell us what did cause the big jump? Inquiring minds want to know.
Are you and your fellow Trump Cultists familier with the Mark Twain quote ''Its a lot easier to fool people than it is to convince them they have been fooled.''
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Name: |
CRD
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Subject: |
It's just language Archie
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Date:
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3/21/2021 11:46:43 PM (updated 3/22/2021 12:44:21 AM)
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So , more than 2% of those 20-29 yoa succumb fatally to this virus? Please reference that study. The Archie Ratio fails to even come close to determining the true risk for an infected person yet you continue to hang your hat on that number now going on over 8 times, having at one time denied ever quoting it. You are ensnared Archie, with no one to blame but yourself.
I have tried in a professional manner to educate a lay person on the not so subtle differences in these numbers. Your failure to take advantage of the curriculum does not allow ignorance to be substituted for epidemiological and statistical validity. Simply because you are able to divide and multiply in a way that makes sense to you and offer that as COVID gospel does not qualify you to demean those who may know a tad more than you.
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Name: |
CRD
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Subject: |
Wow! I'm a 1 percenter
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Date:
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3/22/2021 12:36:32 AM
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You are top shelf Lifer
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Name: |
Lifer
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Subject: |
It's just language Archie
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Date:
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3/22/2021 5:39:51 AM
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Keepit up a while longer Doc. Get him up to 15 so we can refer to him as AR-15 and really trigger him. Gotta love liberals, first response, "I never said that" then repeatedly try to validate what he "didn't" say to begin with. Yet in his mind you are the stupid one.
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Name: |
phil
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Subject: |
I caught your charts before logging in Phil
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Date:
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3/22/2021 8:47:08 AM (updated 3/22/2021 1:30:39 PM)
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I agree with the Mark Twain quote - sadly I think you are the person who has been fooled, and no amount of data or anything else will convince you otherwise.
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architect
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Subject: |
It's just math CRD
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Date:
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3/22/2021 6:21:11 PM
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I have no idea what you are talking about when you claim I said 25 of those 20-29 yoa sucumb to the virus and ask what study I used to make that cllaim! Where did I make such a claim? I assume you consider Johns-Hopkins a reasonably reliable institution. Their daily tabulation of U.S. Covid deaths for March 1-19 is 2.61% of their daily tabulation of new infections. There total U.S. death to infection ratio since the beginning of the pandemic is 1.9%. You can chuck and jive anyway you want to and you can belittle me til the cows come home, and you can throw-in as many medical terms unknown to most everytime you comment, but the bottom line is that, even a year into the pandemic, according to Johns-Hopkins 2% +/- of those infected with the Covid 19 virus die....Period!
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Name: |
CRD
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Subject: |
It's just math CRD
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Date:
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3/22/2021 10:13:25 PM
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I will give you a clue to see if you can figure it out. In mathematics it is called the Distributive Property. Lets see what you come up with.
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Name: |
architect
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Subject: |
Distributive property...EX: 2(1+2+3) = 2x6 = 12 or
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Date:
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3/23/2021 12:29:15 AM (updated 3/23/2021 12:46:31 AM)
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3(2+4) = (3x2)+(3x4) = 6+12 = 18 or addition and subtraction is just another form of multiplication and vice-versa...it all comes out the same to the right side of the equal sign. Basic, but that is the essence of disributive property of mathematics.
So, what the he!!? How does it change the fact that if over a period of a year 30,000,000 people get sick with X disease and over that same period 551,000 of them die from X disease that means that during that time period 1.837% of those that were infected with X disease died from X disease? Oh, I see if you do it the ''distributive property way'' like
0.01837 x (10,000,000+8,000,000+12,000,000) = ...........wait a minute genius, it still comes out to 551,000!!
Get of off your high horse and get with the facts!!
Now, where did you come up with the BS about me saying 2% of the 20 to 29 yoa died from Covid?
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Name: |
architect
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Subject: |
So what's your dog and pony show today CRD?
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Date:
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3/23/2021 9:35:19 AM
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A tutorial on the ''All students take calculus, my dear aunt Sally and Roy G Bev'' rules. Bring it on! None of your nonsense changes the facts on the ground!
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Name: |
phil
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Subject: |
So what's your dog and pony show today CRD?
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Date:
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3/23/2021 9:58:46 AM
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Roy G Bev? wierd - always that indigo started with an I.
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Name: |
CRD
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Subject: |
Step 2
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Date:
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3/23/2021 10:59:08 AM (updated 3/23/2021 11:00:46 AM)
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Well done Archie. Now let's progress. Having once in my lifetime gone through a historic reno, I know the detail that architects (if that is your profession) are called to produce. You certainly don't want to say to the trim man, just frame the interior window with whatever you like. You draw the window trim from all angles, define the cuts, define the sill length and width, the casing, trim style etc all to the Nth detail in your drawings. What concerns me is your apparent lack of the same attention to detail in your myriad of comments defining fatality rates of COVID, details that those of us in the profession pay attention to. The Archie Ratio should have many asterisks placed by its side that more accurately define the number. For instance, beside your total monthly COVID cases should read "does not include those who are COVID positive, have antibodies and are or have been asymptomatic and not counted", or "does not include the false positives", or "does not stratify on basis of age groups" or "does not stratify on basis of ethnicity", or "does not stratify on basis of co-morbidities", or "does not stratify based upon nation of interest", etc etc. As well, your fatality numbers should likewise be associated with asterisks similar to "numbers may be inflated due to death with COVID as opposed to death attributed to COVID sequelae" and "age group stratification not deemed necessary by Archie", or "ethnicity stratification is worthless according to Archie", or "these are only US statistics, which may differ vastly around the world, but why bring that to anyone's attention, I am just trying to make a belligerent point".
For someone who supposedly was trained to pay attention to detail, your mindnumbingly simplistic logic that you purport as true science continues to baffle yet amuse me, but it may be par for the course with you, RE your consistent "orange man bad" posture. So, let's get back to the distributive property which you neatly defined.
Assume that A= your 2% fatality rate.
Assume that B=COVID positives according to various age stratifications, with B1 age 0-7, B2 8-19, B3 20-29 and so on. You could stratify for ethnicity, comorbities, nation of interest, also. For this example only,
A X (B1 + B2 + B3 etc) equals (A X B1) + (A X B2) + (A X B3) etc. However, your blanket statement that the fatality rate for all cases of COVID positive individuals is 2% would require that 2% of those 20-29 yoa would also succumb to the disease, and we know that is not the case. Different age groups have different fatality rates. Point again being that unless you stratfiy and define, the Archie Ratio in the way you have calculated it, is a number (that you have denied saying but have now quoted going on double digits), that paints the severity of this disease with such a broad stroke, that it is meaningless.
Again, all that this proves Archie is that you can obtain numbers from JH, plug them into your formula and with scientific chutzpah, define a pandemic in your own terms. All OK with me Archie, whatever floats your boat, but nonetheless, reeks of lack of merit.
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Name: |
CRD
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Subject: |
So what's your dog and pony show today CRD?
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Date:
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3/23/2021 11:04:40 AM
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Indeed Phil!
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Name: |
architect
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Subject: |
Step 3
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Date:
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3/23/2021 2:51:09 PM (updated 3/23/2021 2:53:47 PM)
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WOW, what a crock pot full of nonsense!
Whether you like it or not and whether you acknowledge it or not and assuming you put any credence in the COVID numbers from Johns-Hopkins, no matter how much you obfuscate and talk about age or ethnic groups, or comorbidities and “with” vs “from” the bottom line still comes out that over the last year approximately 1.84% of the “human beings” who tested positive for COVID 19 died! Do you deny that?
Indigo vs endigo...that’s your weakest and most ridiculous obfuscation yet. I guess it does illustrate that your spelling is better than your math.
BTW: You are pretty weak on knowledge of what architects do too.
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Name: |
CRD
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Subject: |
Wrap it up
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Date:
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3/23/2021 4:33:10 PM (updated 3/23/2021 4:35:08 PM)
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As I have said Archie, knowing that you are an absolute lockdown, double mask, extreme social distancing, restrictive mitigation proponent, despite recent studies that show that new anger, post traumatic stress and severe anxiety and depression are linked to these protocols, I can see where you have come off the tracks. If I thought that my risk was 2% across the board, I too may consider adjusting my behaviour to some extent. I don't base my behaviour on the Archie Ratio for reasons previously stated. You have not convinced me or anyone else on this forum to do so. What you fail to understand is that although all cases are infections, not all infections are cases.
Studies like the one I first referenced in this thread are meant to show that the Infection Fatality Rate, not the Archie Ratio, is a more useful and accurate # in order justify and expedite an across-the-board end to restrictive mitigating measures, which should be the end goal, should it not?
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Name: |
architect
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Subject: |
Wrap it up
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Date:
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3/26/2021 10:42:59 PM (updated 3/26/2021 10:49:32 PM)
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Per Johns-Hopkins as of March 25 2021, 30,582,260 Americans have tested positive for Covid 19 since they started publishing the stats and 555,984 American deaths have beed recorded as due to Covid 19. Another way of saying it is that as of yesterday 1.81806% of the Americans who tested positive died. That is an AR of 1:55. Down a little but still a sickening number that is higher than it would have been had the truth of the virus been declared rather than downplayed by the man who is on tape saying he knew it was really really bad. The politization of a health emergency is unforgivable regardless of who does it.
I have never gone into absolute lockdown and do not double mask, I do wear a mask around other people and I do social distance and those that don't are not showing their patriotism or declaring their freedom, they are being inconsiderate jerks!
Turn out the lights, the party's over CRD!
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CRD
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Wrap it up
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3/27/2021 8:03:49 AM
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You have lost this debate on not only 1, but 2 counts. First, I have gotten you to admit that you did quote the Archie Ratio of 2%, after having denied it and wanting proof. Second, your obfuscation (your favorite word) of the relevance of that number and its effect on public COVID policy means you finally get the importance of the IFR.
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architect
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Wrap it up...on 3/27/21 the AR = 1:55
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3/28/2021 12:41:14 AM
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Im not sure what your last post even means, but I do know how to read numbers and do 4th grade arithmatic.
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Lifer
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You nailed it!
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3/28/2021 5:45:43 AM
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You are trying t o use 4th grade arithmatic to numbers you don't understand becuase you have the mental capacity of a 4th grader whereas CRD uses his advanced degrees, logic and reality to try to explain why you are so far off.
Recap:
"I never said the death rate was 2%".
Doc brings reciepts where you did.
You deny again.
Doc brings more reciepts.
You apply 4th grade arithmatic to the wrong numbers prove it is 2%.
Doc explains why you are wrong.
You double down with more idiocy, still denying you said it while trying to prove it is a correct number.
Doc explains again you are using the wrong numbers.
You triple down on STUPID.
Repeat, repeat, repeat, I forgot how many times now.
LIFER CALLS YOU A DUMB@SS AGAIN!
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