Name:	MartiniMan -	Reply
Subject:	Q2 GDP Crushes Expectations and Doomsayers
Date:	7/30/2025 10:44:47 AM (updated 7/30/2025 10:50:39 AM)

So we had a minor contraction in the Q1 GDP (caused mostly by front loading of imports in anticipation of tariffs) and the "experts" told us Trump was the Antichrist and our economy was headed for a depression....then Q2 happened.  Better than expected.  Exceeded analysts expectations.  Ya know....all the same crap we hear every time making me wonder how the experts are always wrong.

So Q2 GDP was at a very robust 3% yearly pace.  Consumer spending was up, imports were down and investment/exports were also down but not enough to have a big impact.  So far Trump appears to be winning the tariff wars, the stock market as of right now is doing well and consumers are more optimistic and are spending.  Biggest drop came in fixed investments because no major data centers were counted in Q2, which is a very curious thing given the demand from AI.  Given the ups and downs from imports in Q1/Q2 the real YOY GDP will probably be in the 2% range.  

So yet another prognostication of doom has been undone by reality.  Imagine what will happen to the economy when the Fed finally starts to drop rates.  Powell must be furious with the American people that we are plowing along despite his TDS-fueled damage to our economy.  And once they do drop rates, between the tariff revenue, the increased revenue from American wages going up and lower borrowing costs for the Feds we should see some reduction in the rate of debt growth.....no, surpluses will not happen because we still have a spending problem due mostly to out of control entitlement programs.  The bigger question is how the Fed will respond to the inflation numbers, which were mixed and the strong job growth as evidenced by the ADP job numbers of over $100K.  

Name:	CRD -	Reply
Subject:	Q2 GDP Crushes Expectations and Doomsayers
Date:	7/30/2025 11:18:15 AM

MM,

From a microeconomic point of view, I have a slightly different take.  I am a saver.  I have been experiencing " negative " interest rates for quite a while now because interest rates were less than inflation.  Now, when I am beginning to see a return of positive savings returns, the clamor continues for lower interest rates.  I am fine with Powell holding rates where they are.  In addition, access to cheap money will continue to lower interes rates, housing demand will increase in order to take advantage of said rates, supply will remain low and housing prices will escalate.  I guess your opinion  just depends on where you currently sit in the retirement timeline and housing market.  For now, I see no need for change.

Name:	Carlson -	Reply
Subject:	Q2 GDP Crushes Expectations and Doomsayers
Date:	7/30/2025 12:06:02 PM

The problem right now is wrapped around the preoccupation with "tariffs" that has stagnated the movement of the economy based on the resurgence of inflation.  The psychology of the economy is the actual enemy perpetuating a problem that doesn't exist in reality. Perhaps today the fed will move forward even if just getting ready to cut.  How many decents among the governors?

Name:	lucky67 -	Reply
Subject:	Q2 GDP Crushes Expectations and Doomsayers
Date:	7/30/2025 12:29:57 PM (updated 7/30/2025 12:49:10 PM)

CRD  where exactly can amyone find "cheap moneY " ??? home equity loans, even for 800+ credit scores are 8%; second home purchase rates 7.75%; credit cards stll 18 %-+; what planet do you live on ? maybe you should talk to any 40 yr old with a 800 credit score, $75k salary, NO DEBT --how can they afford to buy a home at 7%-NUTS ; at some point--you'll have to admit Powell et al have been on the wrong side of the curve for 5 years; and my opinions are  from the perspective of a career bond trader

Name:	MartiniMan -	Reply
Subject:	Q2 GDP Crushes Expectations and Doomsayers
Date:	7/30/2025 2:02:25 PM

I'm actually in the exact same boat as you.  I have zero debt so lower interest rates hurt savers like us.  Having said that, I still have a ton of money in equities and it wouldn't hurt to see some of the money in interest bearing accounts move back into equities. 

Despite all that my main concern is the debt and the cost to service it.  Every 1% drop in the Fed rate will save taxpayers at least an additional $100B in the short term as those debts mature and around $500B-$600B per year by 2035 when all the current debt has matured.  I know Trump said the long-term savings would be around $900B per year but the real number is probably closer to mine unless the Fed drops the rate by more than 1%, something I doubt.  Current rates under normal debt circumstances would be fine...but we are in anything but normal debt times.  And that is thanks to the COVID, reckless spending under Biden, obstruction of Democrats and the fecklessness of the GOP.

Name:	MartiniMan -	Reply
Subject:	Q2 GDP Crushes Expectations and Doomsayers
Date:	7/30/2025 2:05:30 PM

I suspect the Fed is going to hold rates steady under the fear of inflation rearing it's ugly head.  Who knows, maybe they will be right for once.......blind squirrels do find an acorn.  So far they continue their undefeated record of acting too slowly, overreacting when they do act and fixing their error too slowly.  I believe Powell would love to see a recession so he can blame Trump and he will do whatever he can to make it happen.

Name:	lucky67 -	Reply
Subject:	Q2 GDP Crushes Expectations and Doomsayers
Date:	7/30/2025 2:18:33 PM (updated 7/30/2025 2:22:42 PM)

Ok you guys must not have kids or grandkids or if you do you're not in touch-ask them if they can afford 7% mortgage rates for primary home ,  ( that should be 5.75-6 %-tag on that another 3/4% to the 7% for a second home ? OR your just  too concerned with your ( no mortgage or debt) portfolio -man  -hardly ever a house in my street for sale -4 went up early June still sitting with Zero offers ; and don't believe the Low 5.75% rates you see on the internet -read the fine print where they (should) disclose the Points you'd have to pay to buy down the interest rate( you can google discount points ) 

Name:	MartiniMan -	Reply
Subject:	Q2 GDP Crushes Expectations and Doomsayers
Date:	7/30/2025 3:02:19 PM

No, you are correct that this is a real problem for younger people and I didn't intend to ignore it.  But 7% is about right on the historical norm over the last 50 years.  Rates for the last 20 years have been historically low which has driven up home values and created an expectation that this will never change.  That's definitely part of the problem as well.  So I want to see rates go down to help people buy or refi their homes but that wasn't my focus in my post.

Name:	lucky67 -	Reply
Subject:	Q2 GDP Crushes Expectations and Doomsayers
Date:	7/30/2025 3:04:47 PM (updated 7/30/2025 3:07:24 PM)

And Powell and his minions just lost your (ton of money )equity portfolio several thousands while admitting economy is on solid footing, almost , if not, full employment - so what's the burr in his saddle ? Who's to say 2% inflation is realistic in a global economy 

Name:	Carlson -	Reply
Subject:	Q2 GDP Crushes Expectations and Doomsayers
Date:	7/30/2025 3:17:00 PM

TDS.  He is a do nothing chairman.  So sad but he's on a time limited journey and a worthless placeholder.  So many mistakes but he is transitory,  lol .

Name:	lucky67 -	Reply
Subject:	Q2 GDP Crushes Expectations and Doomsayers
Date:	7/30/2025 4:22:34 PM

3% -and could be 4 if not for idiots at Fed Reserve

Name:	MartiniMan -	Reply
Subject:	Q2 GDP Crushes Expectations and Doomsayers
Date:	7/30/2025 5:10:36 PM

His excuse was the producer core inflation number but the real reason is not to give Trump another win.  He hates him more than he loves the country....classic TDS.

Name:	MartiniMan -	Reply
Subject:	Q2 GDP Crushes Expectations and Doomsayers
Date:	7/31/2025 9:15:02 AM

I certainly hope so but given Q1 and the settling down on the import side I don't see how it gets to 3% by year end.  Q1 was negative and Q2 was at 3% YOY.  Q3 and Q4 will have to be closer to 4% to get it to 3%.  I agree that Powell is intentionally trying to keep the economy throttled and if possible, into recession prior to the midterms because he wants Democrats to control the House so they will impeach Trump over and over.