| Name: |
Bob
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| Subject: |
Drought getting stronger...
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Date:
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3/30/2008 12:21:24 PM
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If you have looked at the last few weather systems, the mosture is being pushed northward and the infamous Ridge in the East is showing signs of dominating again. As it gets warmer this pattern is likely to get stronger and we may very well be in for another very long and dry summer. Of course starting from full will be a great help and delay the levels we saw last year, but if the pattern continues we could be very low again by late July if not sooner.
Lake Lanier is starting the year at the lowest post winter levels EVER so we could be in much worse shape but the drought is FAR from over...hopefully the Corps will grant the higher levels in winter this year as they did last year...
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| Name: |
water_watcher
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| Subject: |
Drought getting stronger...
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Date:
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3/30/2008 12:40:23 PM
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That may well be ... but as you pointed out we are starting from better levels. The drought map did get upgraded from exceptional and unlike last year it does not look as bad. This coming week looks like a good rain system coming through. Was able to enjoy the lake this weekend. It is the first time in many years that I can remember the lake at this level before the end of march. Normally we hope to see this by the end of april. So I will enjoy what we have now and hope it holds through the summer.
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| Name: |
LifeTime Laker
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| Subject: |
Drought getting stronger...
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Date:
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3/30/2008 12:58:32 PM
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Yes Bob we are still in drought, and the typical summer wethaer patterns will prevail agian this year. But you need to define' very low'. We may loose a few feet as summer wears on, in fact last night with friends I predicted 488 by July 4th. But we are going to be nowhere near last years level. Number 1, variances have been granted regarding flows, and there is no dredging project downstream that must have our water. but being in the high an mid 490's is by summers end is nothing new. In fact it is pretty common. I just choose to enjoy what ever is here, and not fuss about what isn't.
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| Name: |
Lakeman
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| Subject: |
Drought getting stronger...
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Date:
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3/30/2008 1:20:43 PM
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The dredging issue is ongoing. Last month an article show one of the heads that be talking with the CORE about widning the river channel and deepening it also and indicated it would be every year need. I will not make a prediction ( Bruce, predictably another forum name ) but I would allow this could be one of the reasons the water is being held backso early. We can only wait and see. Lets just enjoy the lake and try to get along.
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| Name: |
Bob
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| Subject: |
Drought getting stronger...
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Date:
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3/30/2008 1:29:45 PM
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LTL, I was not suggesting that we should forgo the enjoyment of the current water levels and I am doing just that. I was mererly offering up that, while drought conditions have improved, the persistent Ridge is rearing its ugly head once again. I think its a trend that will continue. I hope you are right about 488 by the 4th but I think it could be lower...maybe 486 or so. Who knows its all a guess at this point and I want to be wrong on this one.
We need a tropical system or two that would saturate the water tables...something that hopefully does not do too much damage to our friends to the south...
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it's 486 (or better) on July 4th, I'll be happy. I hope for more and I like the 488 prediction, but 486 will be 6 more feet than last year!
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My mistake, I just checked and it was about 482 on July 4th...I had it in my head that it was already at winter pool, 486 or better still sounds good to me.
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| Name: |
RidgeRider
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| Subject: |
they said it was going to be.
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Date:
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3/30/2008 8:13:06 PM
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drier than normal winter, but it was about average. I think thing are looking good. We've already had more rain than Mark of last year and we're still getting some decent rains. I think there's good chance we're at full pool come Memorial Day, which is going to allow us to have enough water all year. We were 4 feet down at Mem Day last year.
I feel good about being at least 487 July, baring a year as dry as last year which is unlikely.
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| Name: |
Aardvark
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| Subject: |
Drought getting stronger...
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Date:
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3/30/2008 9:20:18 PM
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The rainfall totals are running several inches below normal again so far this year, so it is possible that the levels will start to get lower in midsummer again this year. We had better watch out, because Atlanta might try to pipe all of that water across the border so that they can have green lawns this summer.
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| Name: |
roswellric
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| Subject: |
I think...
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Date:
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3/30/2008 10:08:50 PM
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You are confused. I remember that last year the rainfall went South, not North. North is good..no rain and lots of water in the watershed.
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| Name: |
Bob
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| Subject: |
I think...
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Date:
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3/31/2008 6:21:00 AM
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With all due respect sir, the rain fell in the Texas and Ark-La-Tex regions as well as the mid west. It was shunted to the north by the persistent ridge of High pressure that lasted for nearly 5 months. There was a nit more rain to the far south but the weather systems we usually get went north...this one I will bet the house on...
This was posted on James Spanns blog this morning...
"ONE YEAR AGO: A drought of historical proportions began gripping the Southeast U.S. in 2007, and despite some small relief in recent weeks from light rains late in the year, rainfall deficits continues to grow in many areas. In January, abnormally dry conditions were limited to the area from the Smokies down into western Georgia. That had expanded across the northern half of Alabama by the end of February. By the end of March, moderate to severe drought covered much of eastern Tennessee and Alabama. Through April and May, the drought area grew until it covered much of the Southeast. In June, things got worse, as exceptional drought conditions centered on Alabama. Some gains were made in July, but by the end of August, exception drought conditions covered southern Tennessee, much of Alabama, northern Georgia and southwestern North Carolina. The area of exceptional drought actually expanded through October and November with little relief in December. As the year came to a close, the latest seasonal outlook through March indicated that the drought would persist."
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| Name: |
peruecreek
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| Subject: |
Drought getting stronger...
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Date:
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3/31/2008 8:23:09 AM
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See link below issued March 20, 2008.
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/seasonal_drought.html
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| Name: |
LKBR
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| Subject: |
Drought getting stronger...
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Date:
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3/31/2008 11:21:10 AM
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Thanks for presenting the facts. :)
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| Name: |
LifeTime Laker
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| Subject: |
And just how....
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Date:
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3/31/2008 11:44:30 AM
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... does that post bolster your argument that our rain went north? I am with Ric. I remember most of it going south. Some went north too, and some went both, splitting right before hitting our watershed. But south Alabama got relief much sooner than we did.
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| Name: |
Bob
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| Subject: |
Drought getting stronger...
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Date:
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3/31/2008 12:08:34 PM
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LTL, this link may help even you understand the issue. ALL of the Southeast has been in varying degrees hurt badly by the drought. It is true that some areas south of the Lake faired a bit better but still had horrible conditions. The map clearly shows where the rains fell. They started west and went over the SE USA...don't even bother trying to argue with facts please...
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2007/may/spi06_200705_pg.gif
URL: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2007/may/spi06_200705_pg.gif
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| Name: |
Lighthouse
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| Subject: |
Drought getting stronger...
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Date:
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3/31/2008 12:15:32 PM
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That map is a year old????
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| Name: |
Bob
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| Subject: |
Drought getting stronger...
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Date:
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3/31/2008 12:20:56 PM
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The point was to show what happened LAST year...that was our dispute...
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