Unless I am missing something it appears that the Middle East is in the early stage of some sort of fundamental transformation (based on these uprisings). The real question in my mind, and one that I don't think anyone can answer right now with any certainty, is in 1, 3, 10 or 20 years from now will the world be able to look back on it and say it was a positive transformation. If you look at both ends of the spectrum it will be easier to answer. If on the one hand these countries really do transition to some form of legitimate democratically elected government then these events have every chance of being seen in a positive light. If however, they devolve into radical Islamic dictatorships ala Iran then we are in for a very turbulent time. I suspect given the complexity of that area of the world it will be a mixed bag.
Egypt will at least give us an inkling of what the future looks like. If they really do transition from the current military control to elected representation and the subsequent governing body complies with its treaties (especially with Israel) and does not revert to 6th century barbarism (i.e., rejects modernity) then it will give us more hope for the future of the Middle East. If it goes the way of Iran then we are in trouble......
“…those engaging in the civil unrest are pawns in behind-the-scenes power struggles. In all, the assumed impenetrability of the internal security apparatus and the loyalties and intentions of the army remain decisive factors in determining the direction of the unrest.” - STRATFOR
I think what Stratfor is saying here, is that the culture of the military will be te deciding factor.
The military has been in charge in Egypt since Gamul Abdul Nasser.The risk that Mubarak might name a successor who is not risen from the military was intolerable.The civil unrest, if not instigated by the military, was at least abetted by it.
So it will proceed with the rest… secular versus Islamic.However falls the military, so shall we be expecting the tenor of the outcome. Deposed dictators will flee.If their military preserves their throne, then the military will own them when they return.
Iran, on the other hand, is a different scenario.The unrest is AGAINST the fundamentalist government.And, Iranian are much better educated and savy about organization via electronic means.
Try to imagine being an Israeli citizen just now?? Wow. Tension has got to be very high. But in view of their history, I suspect they are "Locked and Loaded", and prepared to go.
In my opinion, Moammar Ghadafi is GONE! Now, his military is in disarray because they are split over his orders… and those that obeyed… and those that did not.They cannot enter the fray on the ground.Standoff conventional weaponry, besides being a gory mess, is untenable and unacceptable to the rest of the world. I suspect a leader will arise in the military, resolve its internal issues, and then back off in the name of order… the Egyptian solution.
“…The application of conventional weaponry is noteworthy and will warrant scrutiny — particularly in terms of the targets of the attacks and the rationale behind them. The use of these weapons is more appropriate for other armed entities rather than unarmed protesters. Libyan troops are good at instilling fear, but not good at stabilizing a situation, so the military may not be able to get in on the ground due to lost capability.
The situation remains opaque, but these latest developments combined with recent reports of defections of military units to the demonstrators’ side continue to draw STRATFOR’s attention to the possibility that the regime is fracturing.”- STRATFOR
I have been watching the developments very carefully. My real concern is that it is not necessarily a natural progression from a dictatorship to democracy. There are theories that would suggest that one needs a "benevolent dictator" to help a country get to democracy.
I'm not sure I think that whatever happens in Egypt is an indication of how things will go in other countries. I'm optimistic that the apolitical democracy training that the Egyptian and Tunisian military got in US military schools will hold. It is so far.
But Libya, Yemen? Who can say? Will Saudi step in Yemen, theow them some cash, and quiet them down as they have in the past? Tonight when I was watching the news of Libya, I wondered about the Russians... Who have a lot of oil and would probably like to control even more. Will they step into the chaos? Anyone have any thoughts on that?
I suspect that Iran will end up killing a lot of their citizens to put down any thoughts of revolution. We would love to think that the people would overthrow that nut that runs the country, but even if they were successful, I suspect the Muslim Fundamentalist stronghold would just take over. I'm sure there is a radical Ayottola just waiting to step in.
There have been low key anti government uprisings going on for a number of years in Bahrain. I was there in 95, and it was going on then. The military isn't as big an influence in that country as a lot of other countries. I suspect the government will make concessions and it will die down. And we have considerable influence in Bahrain by a very large presence there.
I agree that the Kingdom, Kuwait and Jordan are okay for now.
I'm wondering about Pakistan. Very corrupt government, lots of religious furor, people that are very unhappy about US influence there.
If the middle East is going through a period on anarchy, should we be concerned? Hey, we just import about 30% of our oil from them, We are now paying over $3 a gallon at the pump. Just maybe, we might consider drillling in the Gulf again?? Possibly in ANWAR? Or I guess we can wait for wind powered pollution free green cars.. Good grief.. makes my headache..
I think that is my main idea and your points pretty much confirm that it is so complex and so different from country to country over there that we really don't know what is going to happen and whether it is good, bad or indifferent. Interesting point about Egypt and the American influence. I knew they took our money but have they modernized their culture or is it seething with religious resentment waiting to boil over?
Very complex and very disconcerting not knowing the implications of all this.... I suspect that you could get as many theories as you could get experts in the same room.
As for your point about a "benevolent dictator", can you point to one in history? I thought about it for a while and could not come up with one. I just am of the opinion that given our fallen nature that benevolent and dictator over time become incompatible terms. Maybe you can point me to ones that have truly met that mark for a reasonable period of time. I just can't think of any.
I know how trite sayings can sometimes be off the mark but it seems that Shakespeare had it right about power. That's why Archie and GF better hope I never get absolute power......you I will spare unless you tell me you worked for the government.....then it will be off with your head..... :-)
I don't know that I've read any books on Tito specifically. Years ago, I read these studies about the various models moving from dictatorships to democracy when I was doing some work with African countries. I wish I had kept them, but I didn't, because at the time, I couldn't ever see African countries moving to democracy.
One thing I do remember and it seems to apply to what is going on in the Middle East. That is that it would be the people who would instigate the move to democracy, not outside influences. And that they needed to be a "benevolent" dictator who would guide the countries to develop infrastructures that would ultimately support democratic governments.
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