Name:	GoneFishin -	Reply
Subject:	Just For Martini...What Am I Missing????
Date:	5/2/2021 6:09:35 PM (updated 5/2/2021 6:26:52 PM)

“Thank the good Lord....sad it took the USA Today to finally get Goofy to call it quits.  Don't doubt me Goofy.”

As you stated, you do not like to be challenged when you know you are right. However, what you posted were estimates published by CDC based on early data of cases and deaths.

The numbers I posted are CDC numbers as of April 2021.

The references you posted are from March, April, and May 2020.

I stand by my number of 1.8% as published by CDC as of end of April 2021.  

Your MartiniMan post 4/29/2021

According to NPR, the CDC has revised the estimate downward from its estimate in mid-April. Internal versions of the CDC scenario documents acquired by the Center for Public Integrity show that on April 14, the CDC had estimated a 0.33% fatality rate. That was up from a March 31 estimate of 0.16%.

These were all estimates from March, April, and May 2020.

WHAT AM I MISSING?????

Name:	architect -	Reply
Subject:	MM probably won't answer GF
Date:	5/2/2021 11:18:50 PM

because the reality is he knows you are missing nothing but he is ''missing'' the truth because it does not align with his Trump cult talking points!

Name:	MartiniMan -	Reply
Subject:	Basic intelligence for one
Date:	5/3/2021 9:25:50 AM

Goofy, I am going to use your source and your math so that you will understand how foolish you are sounding.  Going back to your source, on May 15, 2020 (when the CDC said their best estimate that the mortality rate was between 0.2% and 0.4%) we had 1,516,364 total cases and the number of deaths at that time was 91,767.  Doing your math, 91,767 divided by 1,516,364 equals 6.05%. 

So at the time the CDC's best estimate of the mortality rate was less than 0.4% your source indicated that 6% of the people that tested positive for the virus had died.  That alone should tell you something about your claims being abjectly false.  But even more to the point, if it was 6% from your source in May 2020 when the mortality rate was estimated to be less than 0.4% and today the numbers have dropped in your source by 2/3rds (6% to 1.8%) then if we drop the best estimate of the mortality rate by 2/3rds today's estimate should be around 0.13%....so as I said I had probably overestimated the mortality rate when I said it was around 0.2%.

Goofy, I honestly do not understand your incessant desire to be humiliated over and over again.  But I am willing to do it because it is literally so easy I could do it with half my brain tied behind my back (hat tip to the late, great Rush Limbaugh).

Name:	architect -	Reply
Subject:	If you know the difference between Bull Chit and
Date:	5/3/2021 3:01:08 PM (updated 5/3/2021 3:14:37 PM)

a Bull Market you see who is being humiliated here!  MM spouts nonsense/nonscience while DG states facts.  Yes MM 13 months ago we had 1.5 million cases and a frightening 6% fatility rate of 92,000 deaths.  CDC correctly predicted that rate would fall.  Thankfully they were right! By Sept 1 the death rate was down to 3% and by Jan 1 it was down to 1.9% (15 million cases and 290,000 deaths). Now for the problem...it is stuck at just under 1.8% since February. Anybody that knows anything about the law of diminishing retuns and applies it to Covid stats will see that as the numbers rise the math stabalizes.  Now we are at 33 million cases and 587,000 deaths and when we exit this horror hopefully, if we can get the Trump Cultists to stop lying, in the next few months we will find that the entire run of the pandemic has produced something in the ramge of 40 to 50 million US cases and 700,000 to 800,000* deaths meaning that during the course of the pandemic approximately 1.7 to 1.8% of those who tested positive will have died.  MM's and/or CDC's estimate of an eventual end death rate of 0.2 to 0.4% was, sadly, a bit optimistic.

* Interesting that 800,000 is I believe what one of the UK models showed for the US to the universal raspberrys of the Trump administration!

Still waiting for our 2 super intellects to give a reasonable explanation of why 15% more US citizens died in 2020 than 2019 since they write off Covid deaths as a reason.  Any takers since MM and CRD apparently aren't able to give us an explanation.

Name:	CRD -	Reply
Subject:	The truth will set you free
Date:	5/3/2021 4:05:37 PM (updated 5/3/2021 4:06:39 PM)

I don't have time to research a pointless question, but Archie, since you must have considerable time on your hands because you refuse to read any of the research that I post for you, please furnish this and I may be able to give you a valid answer:

Post a table of total deaths by year for the last six calendar years at the same evaluation date after the end of the year.   Only you and the MSM compare data between 1 year to the next.`What might you be trying to hide?  I know, but you don't realize it yet.

Name:	GoneFishin -	Reply
Subject:	Martini??????????
Date:	5/3/2021 6:08:10 PM (updated 5/3/2021 6:13:56 PM)

Let's keep this real simple. Your source and mine are both the CDC. My source, the CDC, shows 574,000 deaths and 32,000,000 confirmed cases for 1.8% mortality. You stated .02% and the another number .04% using CDC as a source. Estimates from May 2020 are just that....estimates.

To keep it real simple so even I understand just fill in the blanks to show your number of deaths and confirmed cases as of May 2020 and your source.

Number of deaths__________

Number of confirmed cases___________

Source______________

If it makes you feel like a VIP, you can even refer to me as dense, stupid, or even a dumb$ss......whatever satifies your ego. Just fill in the blanks...Thanks.

Name:	architect -	Reply
Subject:	It ain't complicated CRD
Date:	5/3/2021 9:55:14 PM (updated 5/3/2021 10:42:31 PM)

Between Jan 1 and Dec 31 2020 almost 15% more Americans died than between Jan 1 and Dec 31 2019.*  What do you not understand about that?!

* The final figures are not in as yet for 2020, but for the first 48 weeks deaths were 2,878,000 compared with 2,749,000 for all of 2019.  Even at the average of 60,000 per week the total for 2020 will be 3,118,000 but the more likely figure due to covid is 70,000 per week for the final 4 weeks bringing the actual ecpected annual number for 2020 to 3,158,000 for an increase of 409,000 souls! An increase of 14.86%.  An inconvenient truth for CRD, MM and all the Trump Cult! Even more inconvenient...with Trump holed up in Mar a Lago the death rate is now going back down.

Yes, the truth will set you free and for you CRD the new freedom is turning out to be a nightmare

Name:	CRD -	Reply
Subject:	It ain't complicated CRD
Date:	5/3/2021 10:44:15 PM

Archie, please reference in concrete terms where I am on record disagreeing with that number.  You won't find it, yet you persist with your pseudo scientist bravado as if you have a real clue.  Where do you think COVID ranks as a preliminary cause of death in 2020 (I say preliminary because final numbers won't be available until 11 months after the end of year being studied)?  Are you at all concerned with the leading cause of death in 2020 as you are with COVID.  How about the second leading cause?  And I see you have now convinced Fish to follow along with the worthless "Archie Ratio" ....why don't you post a link for all of us to read reviewing the latest IFR numbers, a ratio far more valuable and meaningful.  They are out there, but they use big words Archie, like seroprevalence, have your dictionary handy. 

Name:	architect -	Reply
Subject:	Updated numbers from CDC...April 26,2021
Date:	5/3/2021 11:00:38 PM (updated 5/3/2021 11:12:50 PM)

Worse than preliminary estimates!

Total deaths 2020...3,427,321 or 10.4 per 1000

Total deaths 2019...2,854,838 or  8.7 per  1000

2020 19.5% higher than 2019.

What do you not understand with the above?  Do you agree with the numbers?  I did not say you disputed those numbers, though I am surprised if you do not since you dispute just about everything I post, but id say you sure disputed my and GF's posts about the percentage of those who get Covid who die!

I have no idea where Covid falls in the rank of deaths due to disease.  I suspect it ranks behind heart diseases and cancer.  I do know that a hell of a lot of Americans that died of Covid would still be alive today if it had been taken seriously and handled in a more responsible manner from the beginning!

Now, which is more important to the average American, the number of people who die from Covid or understanding the mysterious IFR ratio.  As fo the Aechie Ratio, well you invented that CRD!

Name:	GoneFishin -	Reply
Subject:	CDC??????????
Date:	5/3/2021 11:49:06 PM

As a learned doctor, can you stepdown a notch and keep it simple. What are correct numbers since CDC is posting incorrect numbers. Can you answer the following simple questions about COVID:

How many have died __________________

How many have tested positive_______________

What is your source_______________

Thanks in advance.

Name:	CRD -	Reply
Subject:	Updated numbers from CDC...April 26,2021
Date:	5/4/2021 8:07:28 AM (updated 5/4/2021 8:12:30 AM)

Since you all like to quote from "the CDC', "Johns Hopkins" among others with very rudimentary (look that word up Archie) analysis, I will provide you two a link to a very good article, also from the CDC.  Pour over it and get back with us.  It may assist in describing why the IFR is the far more important calculation, the position which I have maintained for a considerable period of time.  As it turns out Archie and Fish, the IFR is really not so mysterious at all, is it?  It actually determines how well we are doing controlling a disease.  You all don't want to learn how WELL we in healthcare are doing because it does not fit your politics.  Plain and simple.  

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html#table-1

Name:	phil -	Reply
Subject:	It ain't complicated CRD
Date:	5/4/2021 8:44:01 AM

Yup its easy for Biden to take credit for Warp Speed thanks to Trump putting it in place and getting the vaccinations started into peoples arms.

But since you are a Biden/demonratick cult member, we get it. 

Name:	architect -	Reply
Subject:	OK CRD
Date:	5/4/2021 8:49:01 AM (updated 5/4/2021 8:51:31 AM)

Immediately after you answer GF's questions please educate us all on what your IFR tells us about the comparative aspects of how well we "handled" COVID vs your favorite dreaded scourge H1N1.

Name:	lakngulf -	Reply
Subject:	It ain't complicated CRD
Date:	5/4/2021 8:54:11 AM (updated 5/4/2021 9:32:34 AM)

How does this come into play?  It's the "reason" we all had to mask, cause God fauci said you may have it and not know it.  Enter Mr Hodja along with more than triple the actual tested positive.

Do any kind of search on asymptomatic 

Name:	MartiniMan -	Reply
Subject:	Did this one do the trick finally?!?!?
Date:	5/4/2021 9:00:08 AM

Did you finally give up Goofy or do you want to quintriple down?  I am going to give you the same advice I gave MountainMan down below.  Before you post something think critically, examine it for flaws in logic and reasoning......save yourself from looking silly.  I can assure you it will make you a more effective debater.

Name:	CRD -	Reply
Subject:	OK CRD
Date:	5/4/2021 9:09:56 AM

Difficult to answer.  Since the H1N1 is a subtype of Influenza Type A, the serological studies at that time were not specific enough to distinguish H1N1 from antibodies to differing strains of the flu.  As well, since H1N1 affected a primary pediatric population, serology of peds was not routinely performed in order to arrive at a definitive IFR.  

Name:	CRD -	Reply
Subject:	CDC??????????
Date:	5/4/2021 9:17:27 AM

As I have stated on more than numerous occasions, no one is questioning your basic math skills, although numbers of deaths with COVID and numbers due to COVID may skew those numbers somewhat.  See MM's comments above.  My point is that the CFR is a relatively unimportant number, meant to instill fear among the uninformed population, who then will cower to government for safety, allow groups like the AFT to dictate what your children will be taught in virtual classrooms with no oversight, all to, like the Obama adminstration war cry, not let a crisis go to waste.  

Name:	GoneFishin -	Reply
Subject:	Hey Gulf n Lake
Date:	5/4/2021 10:58:19 PM (updated 5/4/2021 10:59:31 PM)

If the CDC counted Hodja tests 3 times, that would only lower the mortality rate.

Name:	lakngulf -	Reply
Subject:	Hey Gulf n Lake
Date:	5/5/2021 8:05:34 AM (updated 5/5/2021 8:09:09 AM)

Ahhh Yes.  And asym  lower it by much more.  H not tested so not in your magical cdc numbers, along with 59 to 80 percent more, according to which study you believe.