Name:	MAJ USA RET -	Reply
Subject:	I told you so!
Date:	10/12/2022 3:47:30 PM

I regret that I will not get to say, “I told you so.”

The laws of physics, chemistry, and thermodynamics waste no consideration on politics and emotion (as if those laws had the capacity). The universe progresses regardless of how we arrogant humans feel about it.

* * * * *

The Milankovic cycles repeat themselves.

The Solar cycles repeat themselves.

The Third law of Thermodynamics directs that the energy state of the earth (and sun) will decay (i.e. not get warmer).

There is always the pull of gravity… no, it sucks (geophysicist joke).

Plants, through photosynthesis, use CO2 to create the substance at the bottom of the food chain.

Ice and Water will never surrender their molecular and density differences.

* * * * *

Despite politics and emotion, these are established processes of the physical/chemical/thermal progress of planet earth.   The history of the earth… though only vaguely understood… is fairly documented.

Media and politics be damned… There IS TRUTH to the universe. We, as an arrogant and naïve species cannot know all the complexities and interactions.

Where do we find truth?

We absolutely can be wrong. BUT… if you ignore history, you destroy half of the answers you need to amend your thesis. Our current political and social hierarchy see no value in history. (If I had no history, I could not understand who I am.)

 There was once a discipline which valued the ability of Homo sapiens to think, ponder, and reason. It was entitled “Liberal Arts.” That discipline required one to consider history, philosophy, observation, and critical thinking. It made the outcome of one’s pondering the responsibility of one’s self. Our Bible is a veritable bibliography of the descent of man by his own self deceit.

 In this day and age we are deceiving ourselves. We abdicate the responsibility of reasoning for ourselves. WE do not require of our children that they do so (indeed we rob them). It is SO much easier to let others think for us… even if the 30 second conclusion is obviously wrong.

We are dust in the wind. When we descend to the sediment of human history, our accomplishments and foibles are set. “I told You SO,” will not be remembered. In the context of geologic time we will be a part of some coastal plain. You and I will be a platelet in a bed of shale… maybe on our way to becoming fossil fuel!

The truth will have already been discerned. But, we won’t be here to say…

- - LMF Curmudgeon

Name:	lakngulf -	Reply
Subject:	I told you so!
Date:	10/13/2022 7:45:14 AM

But Climate Change?!

Name:	MartiniMan -	Reply
Subject:	I told you so!
Date:	10/13/2022 11:20:37 AM

Interesting musing and indeed, the leftists are either ignorant of history or fall into the historical trap that this time it will be different because they are in charge and won't make all the same mistakes.  Then they make all the same mistakes, we get all the same negative results and instead of changing course they double and triple down on stupid.  Plenty of contemporary examples like our current economic mess.  Or the current madness of environmentalism, which has become a religion to millions of ignorant leftists.

I think Fulton Sheen said it best - If you do not live what you believe, you will end up believing what you live.

Name:	MAJ USA RET -	Reply
Subject:	I told you so!
Date:	10/13/2022 7:44:36 PM (updated 10/13/2022 7:50:00 PM)

(There is a jpeg image attached to this post) 

Climate change?   YES! Your Curmudgeon agrees… there is climate change.

Let’s take a few questions:

1 – Since the last ice age, when was the WARMEST time?

2 – What is a “little ice age?”  

3 – What is a “warming period?”

4 – How did the last interglacial end?

5 – If you had only one choice, which would you say is more significant to global climate change: a) the concentration of CO₂ in the atmosphere or b) the Milankovic cycles.

6 – If the United States eliminated ALL anthropomorphic CO₂ , what effect would it have on global warming?

7 – How much of your quality of life would YOU be willing cede to accomplish #6?

8 – We are in a period of increasing solar sunspots. How, with respect to global temperature, does this compare to times when the sunspots decrease or there are none?

9 – What is the effect of CO₂ on sunspots?

10 - What is the effect of CO₂ on the Milankovic cycles?

11 – How long would a liberal entertain this debate?

Name:	MAJ USA RET -	Reply
Subject:	I told you so!
Date:	10/13/2022 7:48:38 PM

You cannot view images in "view entire thread"

Name:	MrHodja -	Reply
Subject:	I told you so!
Date:	10/13/2022 11:32:40 PM

Ah, my friend, you try to impose logic and reason on illogical and unreasonable people.  If you ever figure out the key to doing that succesfully please share your method with the rest of us.  Your graphs, while most likely factual, cause the mere mortal's eye to glaze.  The hysteria of "OMG, a hurricane happened, it is the end of the world unless we give in to the charlatans most are likely to profit" needs some plain language evidence that "climate change" is a crock.  Can you help with that?

Name:	MAJ USA RET -	Reply
Subject:	Simpler explanation
Date:	10/14/2022 10:40:15 AM (updated 10/14/2022 10:42:51 AM)

We scientists wish that the science of climate change was more intuitively obvious. But, it doesn't fit well into a 30 second sound bite.

The Milankovic cycles explained in a simple format:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wi-VEby3m9E  (5 minute video) 

Eccentricity - The Earth orbits the sun in an oval shape called an ellipse, with the sun at one of the two focal points (foci). Ellipticity is a measure of the shape of the oval.

The Earth's orbit slightly changes its eccentricity over the course of 100,000 years from nearly 0 to 0.07 and back again. When the Earth's orbit has a higher eccentricity, the planet's surface receives 20 to 30 percent more solar radiation when it's at perihelion (the shortest distance between the Earth and sun each orbit) than when it is at aphelion (the largest distance between the Earth and sun each orbit). Today, the eccentricity of Earth's orbit is 0.017. At perihelion, which occurs on or around Jan. 3 each year, Earth's surface receives about 6 percent more solar radiation than at aphelion, which occurs on or around July 4.

Axial tilt - The tilt of the Earth's axis relative to the plane of its orbit is the reason that we experience seasons. Slight changes in the tilt changes the amount of solar radiation falling on certain locations of Earth. Over the course of about 41,000 years, the tilt of the Earth's axis, also known as obliquity, varies between 21.5 and 24.5 degrees.

When the axis is at its minimal tilt, the amount of solar radiation doesn't change much between summer and winter for much of Earth's surface and therefore, seasons are less severe. This means that summer at the poles is cooler, which allows snow and ice to persist through summer and into winter, eventually building up into enormous ice sheets.

Today, the Earth is tilted 23.5 degrees, and slowly decreasing. With respect to axial tilt, we are proceeding toward conditions favorable for the onset of the next ice age.

Precession - Earth wobbles just slightly as it spins on its axis, similarly to when a spinning top begins to slow down. The wobble doesn't change the tilt of Earth's axis, but the orientation changes. Over about 26,000 years, Earth wobbles around in a complete circle.

As the Earth completes a precession cycle, the orientation of the planet is altered with respect to perihelion and aphelion. If a hemisphere is pointed toward the sun during perihelion (shortest distance between Earth and sun), it will be pointed away during aphelion (largest distance between Earth and sun), and the opposite is true for the other hemisphere. The hemisphere that's pointed toward the sun during perihelion and away during aphelion experiences more extreme seasonal contrasts than the other hemisphere.

Currently, the southern hemisphere's summer occurs near perihelion and winter near aphelion, which means that (e.g.) Australia experiences more extreme seasons than Siberia.

https://www.livescience.com/64813-milankovitch-cycles.html

These cycles repeat themselves… and sometimes they come together for a maximum effect. And sometimes they diverge for a milder effect.

Milankovic calculated that Ice Ages occur approximately every 41,000 years. Subsequent research confirms that they did occur at 41,000-year intervals between one and three million years ago. But about 800,000 years ago, the cycle of Ice Ages lengthened to 100,000 years, matching Earth’s eccentricity cycle. While various theories have been proposed to explain this transition, scientists do not yet have a clear answer.

Name:	Lifer -	Reply
Subject:	"The science is settled!"
Date:	10/14/2022 11:42:41 AM

So I am sure Major will be dissapeared to a re-education gulag soon.

Name:	MrHodja -	Reply
Subject:	Simpler explanation
Date:	10/14/2022 3:10:04 PM

Thanks, that does make it much easier to understand....and explain to those not willing to exercise the grey cells enough to understnd the more abstract explanations.

Name:	MAJ USA RET -	Reply
Subject:	Mother Earth doesn't make mistakes
Date:	10/16/2022 9:30:02 AM (updated 10/16/2022 9:33:31 AM)

There will be no “mistakes” as the earth’s processes go on exactly as THEY will… not as WE wish they would. The earth will not take revenge on us arrogant humans. WE will simply, through natural processes, be reduced to sediment and covered up. There is plenty of evidence for reduction and burial of human efforts (hence the science of archeology and anthropology).

We should be careful for what we wish. Since the Precambrian period CO2 has gone from a significant component of the atmosphere to a trace gas. As the atmosphere proceeds with physical and chemical changes, we’ll begin having problems with crop yields. Already, plants relying on C4 photosynthesis are on the rise. And plants requiring CO2 are on the wane. We and our livestock eat the ones that rely on CO2.

About 750 mya, Alabama did not exist – it was oceanic crust. Later, Mount Cheaha was part of a mountain range equal to the Rocky Mountains (~300 mya). What is now Alabama was near (or on) the equator. The climate was MUCH warmer then. Flora and Fauna flourished. Uh… and some the flora mass was buried to make abundant coal, oil, and natural gas. When the Wetumpka Crater was formed, Sylacauga was a seaside town.) At one time, the Western Sahara was arable land. Long before human beings began using fossil fuels, that changed. Approximately 20 kya ,the Bering Strait was dry land – Savannah… and large mammals roamed and flourish there. What did humans have to do with all of this? NOTHING!

The earth is cooling. It has been since the Hadean period 4.6 bya. However, when the sun becomes a red giant, the earth will be swallowed up (in about 5 billion years). Yes, it will be warmer then. (But the sun will be cooler.) This follows the 2^nd and 3^rd laws of Thermodynamics.

Have a NICE day.

- - LMF Curmudgeon

Name:	Lighthouse -	Reply
Subject:	Mother Earth doesn't make mistakes
Date:	10/16/2022 10:50:01 AM

Thank You Maj for that knowledge that most of us do not understand, or even know.  

I appreciate what you have given us.

Name:	MrHodja -	Reply
Subject:	Mother Earth doesn't make mistakes
Date:	10/16/2022 10:39:11 PM

Interesting post.  Based on your iformation, could I then deduce that we need to be creating more CO2, not less?  Otherwise we may eventually starve ourselves into extinction by eliminating the most basic step of our food chain?