| Name: |
water_watcher
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| Subject: |
15% Unemployment
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Date:
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7/13/2009 8:48:40 PM
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Was just watching CNBC, had a guy on that made a lot of sense. He forecast that unemployment will hit 15% before the end of Obama's term. He attributes the stimulus as the cause of unemployment growth rather than reduction. He also said that the artificially low interest rates are causing much more harm than good. The belief is the cheap money will cause businesses to invest (as in the past), but the fear of higher taxes and government regulations, national healthcare, cap and trade, etc ... all have businesses scared. They know the feds are keeping rates low so they see no rush to borrow and invest in capacity expansion. But then that is causing more slow down and more unemployment.
The only way out is to let the market set the rates, which may mean rising interest rates, some businesses will fall, but deep tax cuts for businesses and individuals will reverse the downward spiral Obama has put us on.
I am not saying I agree 100%, but I do with most of it and he made tremendous sense. BTW, he also predicted in 2007 the credit crisis.
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| Name: |
Talullahhound
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| Subject: |
15% Unemployment
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Date:
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7/13/2009 8:59:53 PM
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I predict that there will be at least 3 other economists who will dispute his view. And I predict that unemployment will go up and then go down.
My only point is this -- for everything either you or I believe, we can find one or more economists who agrees with us. Which leads me to conclude that no one is sure what the numbers will do. We're still in uncharted waters.
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| Name: |
water_watcher
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| Subject: |
15% Unemployment
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Date:
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7/13/2009 9:43:37 PM
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I agree with part of your comment that not everyone will agree and I don't agree with everything he said. But his logic was solid and he supported his position and why very well.
What I don't agree with that you said is that this is uncharter territory. There are definitely some unique attributes to this recession, but not totally out of the ordinary. What is different is the approach to correcting it and getting the economy back on course.
That is different and definitely does not seem to be working and it is dismissed that it was worse than we thought but we will stay the course. I and others said long ago the stimulus would make things worse, not better. That seems to be holding true.
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| Name: |
Talullahhound
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| Subject: |
15% Unemployment
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Date:
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7/13/2009 10:32:53 PM
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Considering only 10% of the stimulus has been used, I think it is too early to tell. Time will tell.
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| Name: |
MrHodja
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| Subject: |
15% Unemployment
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Date:
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7/13/2009 11:22:03 PM
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The cynical part of me says that the reason the stimulus is only 10% implemented is purely political, just as the frenzied rush to pass it was purely political. It is all about getting re-elected, and the good of the country be danmed.
Politicians have "risen" to a new low.
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| Name: |
water_watcher
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| Subject: |
Hound you are making my point
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Date:
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7/14/2009 6:34:21 AM
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I agree only 10% has been spent ... why? We had a bad recession and credit crisis with high foreclosures. Unemployment rising rapidly. Why would we put a "spending" plan in place that will take two years to be realized (Obamas words not mine). Of course it takes a long time to spend that massive amount of money.
That is why targeted tax cuts have a much more immediate impact on the economy to stimulate it and put people to work. At a much less cost to the tax payer.
It is clear Obama does not care about the economy or rising unemployment as long as he gets his agenda through.
This is the point of the guy on CNBC ... spending plans do not work, they take too long and the problem keeps getting worse in the short meantime. They tend to keep weak businesses alive which never allows the economy to flush out the excesses and start moving forward. It creates bigger government which means more taxes and more regulation that slows recovery and when you get one it is very weak.
All of this was said by many of us and we are not experts ... but sure seems to be holding true. Yet the died in the wool liberals keep making excuses why it is not working.
It is not working because it is the wrong plan. More and more people are realizing that. The course we are on will make the Carter years of stagflation and the misery index look like the boom years.
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| Name: |
Talullahhound
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| Subject: |
Hound you are making my pointd
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Date:
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7/14/2009 8:31:35 AM
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OK, I'll buy that. Maybe the plan is not the right plan. But, that doesn't necessarily mean that tax cuts are the right plan.
I'm not a big fan of stimulus -- on the surface, I think businesses ought to fail if they are under-capitalized and poorly managed.
But, I don't think you can definitively say that tax cuts are the only alternative solution. And maybe the real solution is some combination of the BUSINESS tax cuts and some good legislation to put some control on financial markets. I have a feeling that we can't go back -- that what has worked in the past is not going to bail us out this time. It can't be purely the "republican" or the purely the "democratic" solution. If anything, Obama's administration is disappointing me by not being more bipartisan.
But, the democrats are hardly in a position to give tax cuts given the ambitious domestic agenda. Personally, I would like them to get the economy under control and shelve the more ambitious domestic plans for the moment.
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| Name: |
water_watcher
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| Subject: |
Hound you are making my pointd
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Date:
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7/14/2009 9:20:43 AM
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Actually I agree with most of what you said. We may differ on if tax cuts would have worked better (I believe they would have) but we will never know since that is obviously not the path. All we know is what we have and at this point, it does not look to be the right plan.
I 100% agree that now is the wrong time to be pushing the domestic agenda. All the focus should be on the economy and getting people back to work.
That is why so many of us have said we do not believe Obama cares at all about what is going on in the economy and unemployment as long as he gets his agenda passed. He seems out of touch with main street and the reality of losing jobs and homes is having on people and families. Then all he can say is that this was a two year plan and was not suppose to work in 6 months. Tell that to the increasing number of people out of work.
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| Name: |
lakngulf
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| Subject: |
the Plan
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Date:
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7/14/2009 9:33:59 AM
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Here is the Plan to make it go. (1) 10% tax cut for anyone paying federal income tax (2) Capital gain tax to 11% (3) For welfare recipients match dollar for dollar any income they will earn (4) No more money straight to auto dealers....instead offer 10,000 to anyone who will use it to buy car made in USA (5) to hell with the AIGs (6) All govt retirees pay for health insurance (7) Spend no more of the stimulus, just let it stay in the bank (ha we don't even have it) to cover income lost from above.
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| Name: |
Talullahhound
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| Subject: |
Question:
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Date:
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7/14/2009 10:14:27 AM
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What government retirees AREN'T paying for health care? I pay for mine. I even paid for it when I worked although a small portion of it was subsidized.
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| Name: |
lakngulf
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| Subject: |
Question:
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Date:
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7/14/2009 10:23:18 AM
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I have read Bronner many times about the crisis coming in "unfunded" medical insurance. Maybe that is just a state thing, but my guess is there is a federal subsidy as well. And the same thing at local governments. I could be wrong. You may be paying the full bill for you medical insurance. If so, then my plan would not affect you.
P.S. I threw that one in there so I could have some items to negotiate on...ha
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| Name: |
MartiniMan
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| Subject: |
Mort Zuckerman piece
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Date:
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7/15/2009 12:16:40 PM
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Pretty sobering piece from someone who is not a member of the vast right-wing conspiracy.
By the way, the vast majority of the 10% of the stimulus money already spent was sent to state and local governments that were in terrible financial straits so unionized government workers didn't have to lose their jobs while millions of regular folks lost their jobs. For Obama to have said "the stimulus plan is working exactly as we expected" is an absolute lie. He specifically told the American people that if they didn't pass this stimulus plan that unemployment would hit 8%. The fact is Joe Biden has been much more honest, they have no idea what they are doing.
URL: http://www.usnews.com/articles/opinion/mzuckerman/2009/07/13/nine-reasons-the-economy-is-not-getting-better.html
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| Name: |
Talullahhound
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| Subject: |
Mort Zuckerman piece
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Date:
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7/15/2009 2:54:05 PM
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Good disection of the problem, I don't see that he proposed a solution.
You'll disagree, but I don't think anyone on either side of the aisle have a clue how to fix it.
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| Name: |
MartiniMan
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| Subject: |
Mort Zuckerman piece
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Date:
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7/15/2009 3:26:17 PM
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He didn't offer solutions. Republicans have proposed a bill called the Economic Recovery and Middle-Class Tax Relief Act of 2009. I know, you have probably never heard of this because it has been embargoed by the government media. You may not agree with their solutions but I hope you will agree that it is unfair to say they haven't proposed any solutions of their own. And remember, this is an economic stimulus bill meant to improve the economy. The difference is the philosophy that individuals can do that much better than government.
Some highlights of the bill which I believe (given my fiscal conservative nature) makes significantly more sense than anything coming out of the Dem-lead Congress. All these will stimulate businesses, create jobs and quickly improve the economy as they have every time they were tried.
Spending
- Does not include one penny of new spending
-1% reduction in FY2009 discretionary spending
Business Stimulus
-Full and immediate expensing the cost of assets (huge stimulus)
-Reduction in corporate tax rates from 35% to 25%
-End capital gains tax on inflation and simplify the structure
-Make R&D tax credit permanent
-Extend carryback period for losses to seven years
Taxes
- 5% across the board tax cuts for all brackets and make the cuts permanent
- increase child tax credit to $5,000
-make the lower 15% rate on capital gains and dividends permanent
- repeal the AMT
- repeal required distributions on retirement accounts
- make withdrawals from 401k and IRA accounts in 2009 penalty and tax free
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| Name: |
Talullahhound
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| Subject: |
Mort Zuckerman piece
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Date:
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7/15/2009 5:23:29 PM
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Interesting. You're right, I haven't seen it. Is it being debated?
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| Name: |
MartiniMan
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| Subject: |
Apparently not
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Date:
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7/15/2009 5:51:28 PM
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I had heard it was being blocked by the Dem leadership and the government media has an embargo on even mentioning it. Sadly, you have to get this from the alternative media which has limited distribution. I first heard about it when my congressman Tom Price was being interviewed. It was sort of the same question you asked, "All you can say is no to Obama but what's your plan?" When he answered with the bill name and some of the details the questioner said they had not even heard of it.
It's not perfect but it is a far cry better than what we are getting and in my experience will actually do some good. I liked the no new spending along with the 1% cut. What Congressman Price said was their budget would generate more jobs at 1/3rd the cost of the current plan (recognizing the likely fluff in that number). It is a serious proposal that is being completely torpedoed by the Dem leadership (aided and abetted by the government media) because they know a majority of Americans would consider it reasonable and worth a shot. No hope of that until 2010 (assuming there is a correction in Congress from the last electoral folly).
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| Name: |
MartiniMan
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| Subject: |
Mort Zuckerman on Kudlow
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Date:
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7/16/2009 3:45:52 PM
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He was on Kudlow last night and during the interview he said not only doesn't Obama want to create new jobs but all he is doing is ramming through a Democrat wish list using the term stimulus as cover for their true agenda. I doubt Mort is going to be invited to the WH anytime soon.......
Very refreshing to hear a member of the government media finally tell the truth. I suspect Mort has friends and family that have been really hurt and he can no longer provide cover like the rest of the media.
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