Name:   MartiniMan - Subject:   Let the insanity begin! Date:   11/3/2020 8:17:26 AM (updated 11/3/2020 8:24:09 AM)

I write an internal company blog for my employees and I titled it "Happy Election Day".  I say happy because at least we will be done with the political ads and can start focusing on the hand wringing, gnashing of teeth, recriminations on one side and joy on the other.  I have no prediction as to what will happen today because I think all the turnout models are invalid because this is such a unique election cycle with record high early and absentee voting and election day turnout. Regardless of the outcome, greater participation in this representative republic is a good thing.

So many questions.  Will the youth vote turn out in droves for Biden as they seem to predict every election?  Will the 30% black approval of Trump translate into votes?  Will seniors and suburban college-educated women break for Biden?  Will the Hispanic vote move even more toward Trump or remain reliably Democrat?  Frankly, my hope is it is an electoral college blowout either way so we don't have months of legal wrangling.  One interesting data point.  Hugh Hewitt's show this morning was only taking calls from voters who didn't vote for Trump last time.  Obviously they all were voting for Trump but what was interesting was the demographics.  Some Republicans, some Independents and some Democrats.  What was interesting was he asked them why the switch.  Common themes were the Russia hoax, the media bias, Democrats have gone too far left, Trump kept his campaign promises, disgust with the Swamp, the strong economy before the Wuhan virus, etc.  Why that is interesting is these are the themes the campaign focused on and they are apparently resonating with some people.  And that's just the Presidential election.

Lots of very close Senate races that will determine which party controls it.  The ones to watch I think are Maine, Iowa, Colorado, Michigan and NC.  And of course given the changing political landscape in Georgia it's possible Perdue could lose to Ossoff.  For sure our other Senate seat is headed to a runoff because there's no way any of them will get over 50%.  Frankly the only one with a chance is the Democrat but I've never seen him polling above the mid-40's.  I also think Tuberville will unseat Jones.  He just isn't a good fit for Alabama and only won because of who he ran against last time.  It's all about the candidate folks.....good ones win, bad ones lose.

We should see a shift in the House one way or the other but I will be surprised if they pick up seats and shocked beyond belief if the GOP regains control.  It just isn't gonna happen.